Month-End Flows Steady Markets As Traders Await Key U.S. Inflation Data

Global markets traded in narrow ranges on Friday as investors positioned ahead of the upcoming U.S. Core PCE inflation release and typical end-of-month rebalancing flows.

The U.S. dollar held near recent lows, with traders cautious that any upside surprise in inflation could interrupt expectations for early-2026 rate cuts. Treasury yields edged slightly lower, helping tech stocks stabilise after a volatile week.

Gold remained broadly flat but well supported, as the prolonged U.S. government shutdown continues to cloud fiscal-policy visibility.

In FX, the euro and pound held firm on improving sentiment data, while the yen strengthened modestly amid speculation of future comments from the Bank of Japan on wage dynamics. Commodity currencies were mixed: the Australian dollar found support from rising metals prices, while the Canadian dollar lagged as crude oil drifted lower into month-end.

With liquidity thinning into the weekend, traders now look to the inflation print as the next major catalyst — one that could determine whether the recent repricing of Fed expectations has gone too far.