Critical U.S. Jobs Data in Focus This Week

The labor market will dominate attention this week, with payrolls, unemployment, and wage growth all key to shaping the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps. Stronger figures could revive demand for the dollar, while weaker data may reinforce expectations for further easing.

Nonfarm Payrolls

Economists project September NFP at 39K, up from August’s 22K but still well below historical averages. Persistent weakness in hiring remains a concern as markets weigh whether the slowdown is temporary or structural.

Unemployment and Wages

The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, while average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% MoM, matching August’s gain. This would keep annual wage growth steady, underscoring sticky labor costs even as job creation slows.

JOLTS Job Openings

Job openings are expected to remain elevated at 7.3 million, down from the peaks of 2022 but far from collapse. This suggests employers are more cautious about posting new positions but that labor demand is still intact.

Market Implications

With the Fed already shifting into easing mode, this week’s jobs data will be pivotal in determining the pace of rate cuts. The balance between weakening employment and persistent wage pressures could drive volatility across FX, gold, and equity markets heading into Q4.