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Peso Faces Key Test Ahead of Banxico Decision
The Mexican peso is consolidating after USD/MXN rebounded from multi-week lows near 18.20. On the daily chart, the pair bounced off the lower Bollinger Band and is now pressing into the 18.40–18.45 zone, which coincides with the upper boundary of the short-term descending channel that has defined September’s selloff. Technical Levels in Play Break above…
22 сентября 2025
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Dot Plot Divide: Dollar Gains, Gold Stalls
The dollar strengthened after a volatile reaction to the Federal Reserve’s latest decision. USD/JPY initially spiked lower on the back of a 25 basis point rate cut, but quickly reversed as the Fed’s updated dot plot came in less dovish than markets had anticipated. FOMC Outlook The dot plot revealed a split: a narrow majority…
19 сентября 2025
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FOMC Doves Take the Lead After Latest Cut
The Federal Reserve delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut today, signaling that two additional reductions are likely before the end of the year. The decision underscored growing dovish momentum inside the FOMC, with only one dissent. Policy Divide Newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran pushed for a larger 50-basis-point cut, but his call was not backed by…
18 сентября 2025
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Euro Holds Firm Despite France’s Credit Downgrade
The euro remained resilient even after Fitch downgraded France’s credit rating, citing rising debt, political polarization, and fiscal risks. French bond spreads widened against German bunds, highlighting investor caution. In response, new Prime Minister Lecornu scrapped a controversial plan to abolish two public holidays but stressed that fresh budget cuts remain necessary. U.S. Outlook Attention…
16 сентября 2025
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Countdown to the Fed’s Most Anticipated Decision
Markets are bracing for the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting, with overwhelming consensus pointing to a 25-basis-point cut that would bring rates to the 4.00–4.25% range. A Reuters survey found 105 of 107 economists expecting this outcome. Potential Dissenters The decision may not be unanimous. FOMC members Austan Goolsbee and Jeff Schmid have signaled they…
15 сентября 2025
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Forex Pricing Tied to TikTok Trade Talks
U.S.–China trade negotiations are in focus this week, and one of the most contentious issues could be how TikTok is separated from Chinese government and corporate interests. The outcome may heavily influence market sentiment toward the broader U.S.–China relationship, creating ripple effects across global risk assets. Impact on Currencies Commodity-linked and China-sensitive currencies, particularly the…
15 сентября 2025
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Dollar Regains Ground but Still Set for Weekly Loss
The U.S. dollar inched higher on Friday, with the dollar index up 0.1% to 97.66, though it remains on track for a second straight weekly decline. Markets continue to weigh labor market cracks against sticky inflation, keeping focus firmly on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision next week. Labor Market and Inflation Data Thursday’s report showed…
12 сентября 2025
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Dollar Slips as NFP Fallout Boosts Fed Cut Bets
The U.S. dollar extended losses, with the dollar index falling to a seven-week low, as markets remained focused on last Friday’s disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls report. Despite a stronger-than-expected NFIB small business optimism survey, traders continue to price in aggressive Federal Reserve easing. CME data now shows an implied probability above 100% for a rate cut…
10 сентября 2025
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Political Turmoil in Japan Fuels Yen Volatility
The Japanese yen reversed sharply lower on Friday, with markets seemingly pricing in political instability before the weekend’s shock announcement. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigned following mounting pressure within his party to take responsibility for a historic election defeat earlier this year. His resignation opens the door to a leadership contest just as Japan faces…
08 сентября 2025
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Fed Rate Cut Odds Surge to 97% Ahead of Jobs Data
Markets are sharply pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut, with CME Group’s FedWatch tool now assigning a 97% probability of a cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting in two weeks. The surge in expectations comes ahead of Friday’s crucial U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. ADP Data Sets the Tone This week’s ADP private…
05 сентября 2025
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Ethereum Takes the Lead: Why ETH Is Outshining Bitcoin
Ethereum has clearly taken the lead in the crypto market, outperforming Bitcoin both in returns and in sentiment. While BTC climbed to a new high near $125,000, the move lacked strong momentum. Ethereum, in contrast, posted double-digit gains and broke past its 2021 peak to set fresh all-time highs near $4,950. Key reasons for Ethereum’s…
03 сентября 2025
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Bitcoin in Bullish Consolidation Ahead of Fresh Highs
Bitcoin is currently in a consolidation phase following a sharp run-up to a new all-time high of ≈ $124,000 in mid‑August. Prices have since pulled back and are trading in a range roughly between $104,000 and $114,000. Key Drivers & Recent Catalysts Fed Rate‑Cut Expectations: Markets are responding to growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve…
01 сентября 2025
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