Dot Plot Divide: Dollar Gains, Gold Stalls
19 septiembre 2025
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The dollar strengthened after a volatile reaction to the Federal Reserve’s latest decision. USD/JPY initially spiked lower on the back of a 25 basis point rate cut, but quickly reversed as the Fed’s updated dot plot came in less dovish than markets had anticipated.
FOMC Outlook
The dot plot revealed a split: a narrow majority of policymakers now expect two more small cuts this year, while others project just one or even none. This suggests the Fed is not aligning entirely with new FOMC board member Stephen Miran’s push for aggressive 50 bps reductions, signaling a degree of independence in policy direction.
USD/JPY Technicals
The pair carved out a sharp V-shaped reversal after the initial dip, showing strong bullish momentum. Unless a reversal candle such as a bearish engulfing forms, buyers remain firmly in control.
Gold Technicals
XAU/USD rallied to 3,707 before pulling back more than 600 pips to 3,646. Recent candles show shorter bodies with upper wicks, hinting at fading bullish momentum and emerging supply pressure. If this evolves into a continuation pattern, traders will watch the lower border of the channel as the next key area of support.
