Dollar Gains Strength Amid Renewed Trade Frictions and Global Policy Shifts
08 July 2025
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The US dollar opened the week on a firmer footing as traders returned from the Independence Day holiday, with attention quickly turning to the renewed specter of tariff disputes and geopolitical uncertainty.
Washington has revived its hardline stance, with President Trump signaling that nations pursuing BRICS-aligned trade policies in opposition to US interests could soon face a 10% tariff. The deadline for fresh tariff measures looms on Wednesday, creating an uneasy backdrop for global markets. While implementation of reciprocal tariffs has now been delayed until August 1st, the prolonged back-and-forth continues to weigh on investor sentiment.
China has escalated the situation by introducing new restrictions on European medical device imports, complicating its already delicate economic relationship with the Eurozone. Analysts note that such measures could further strain supply chains at a time when Europe is struggling to balance growth with inflation concerns.
Meanwhile, economic data released across different regions painted a mixed picture. In Japan, real wages contracted by 2.9% year-on-year in May, underscoring the persistent squeeze on household incomes and amplifying the challenge for policymakers ahead of crucial elections later this month.
Europe offered slightly more optimistic signals, with Germany’s industrial production rising 1.2% in May and the Eurozone’s Sentix investor confidence index surprising to the upside. Still, ECB policymaker Mário Centeno warned that risks to inflation remain tilted to the downside, raising concerns over the euro’s resilience in the months ahead.
In Scandinavia, Sweden’s inflation data surprised to the upside, complicating expectations of an early interest rate cut by the Riksbank. The stronger CPI print may prompt policymakers to adopt a more cautious stance, delaying monetary easing until inflation pressures clearly subside.
For North America, the data calendar remains relatively light today, though markets will closely monitor remarks from the ECB’s Robert Holzmann for further signals on policy direction.
