Can Gold Break the $4,000 Barrier This Month?

Gold is inching closer to the psychological $4,000 level, after touching $3,890 per ounce earlier this week. The rally remains one of the strongest among major assets, driven by a combination of macro uncertainty and safe-haven demand.

Fundamental Drivers

Two factors have fueled the latest surge:

1. A surprise drop in U.S. private employment, signaling renewed labor market weakness.

2. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed key data releases — including this week’s Nonfarm Payrolls and the upcoming CPI report.

With the Federal Reserve set to meet on October 29, policymakers may have to make their next rate decision without critical data, raising the likelihood that they will pause rate cuts for now.

Technical Outlook

The overall trend for gold remains constructive:

• Support levels: $3,760 and $3,720

• Resistance: The $4,000 psychological barrier

• Breakout targets: $4,025 and $4,101 (Fibonacci extensions)

A sustained daily close above $4,000 could open the door to new all-time highs, while a break below $3,760 might signal a deeper retracement toward $3,680.

Bottom Line

Political gridlock, delayed data, and heightened uncertainty have created an environment where gold’s safe-haven status continues to shine. If the metal can clear $4,000 convincingly, momentum traders may view that as the start of a new leg higher.