Bitcoin Faces NFP Test Amid Concerns Over Data Integrity

Bitcoin’s recent rally on dovish Federal Reserve signals proved short-lived, with the price slipping back to the $112,000 region after Jerome Powell hinted at a likely September rate cut. Traders are now shifting their attention to next week’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, a release that could have major implications for Fed policy expectations—and for crypto markets.

Jobs Data in the Spotlight

A stronger-than-expected jobs report could undermine the case for rate cuts, keeping monetary conditions tighter for longer. That scenario would likely weigh on Bitcoin and other risk assets, particularly after the market’s latest failure to hold higher ground.

Political Pressure and Data Doubts

Market chatter has also turned to concerns over the credibility of U.S. labor statistics. With President Trump’s influence over federal agencies once again under scrutiny—symbolized by his portrait now displayed at the Department of Labor—traders are wary of the possibility that job growth figures could be politically inflated. Such an outcome could dent investor confidence and reshape positioning across asset classes.

Technical Risks for BTC

From a chart perspective, Bitcoin remains vulnerable if the NFP surprises on the upside. A bearish reaction could see price action retesting key Fibonacci retracement levels: first near $109,900 (141.4%), and potentially deeper toward $108,700. A break below these zones could accelerate selling momentum, undoing the progress made earlier this month.

Broader Market Implications

Beyond crypto, a stronger NFP print would likely lift the dollar, pressure gold, and push Treasury yields higher, reinforcing the risk-off tone. By contrast, weaker job data could revive hopes for September easing, sparking a rebound in Bitcoin and Ethereum.

For now, the NFP report is shaping up as the next critical catalyst for both traditional markets and digital assets.