Countdown to the Fed’s Most Anticipated Decision

Markets are bracing for the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting, with overwhelming consensus pointing to a 25-basis-point cut that would bring rates to the 4.00–4.25% range. A Reuters survey found 105 of 107 economists expecting this outcome.

Potential Dissenters

The decision may not be unanimous. FOMC members Austan Goolsbee and Jeff Schmid have signaled they could dissent in favor of holding rates steady, questioning the need for immediate easing.

Possibility of a Larger Move

Speculation is also building over a potential 50-basis-point cut. If Stephen Miran’s nomination to the Fed Board is confirmed by the U.S. Senate on Monday, he could be sworn in before the meeting and might push for a more aggressive cut. Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, who have previously dissented dovishly, could also lend support to a larger move.

Traders are watching closely, as the outcome and split within the Committee will shape expectations for the Fed’s policy trajectory into year-end.